Quite a lot has happened in the contrail world these past few months. So, instead of yammering on with an introduction, let’s get into the details.
Changes to the EU’s MRV Scheme
The much-anticipated monitoring, reporting, and verification system for aviation’s non-CO2 emissions has undergone critical alterations recently. In July, the European Union Commission announced it has adjusted its non-CO2 emissions initiative to include only flights within the European Economic Area, the UK, and Switzerland. This is a major step back from the initial measures established in 2022, which would have accounted for all flights coming into and out of Europe.
The pilot scheme, set to launch in January 2025 and operate for two years, is designed to gather data on the non-CO2 emissions of flights. The goal is to develop a framework for future legislation for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation by establishing a monitoring, reporting, and verification system (MRV) of non-CO2 aviation emissions. This system will use flight data, aircraft and fuel properties, and performance information to calculate the CO2 equivalent of non-CO2 emissions for each flight. This information could be invaluable to further our understanding of the full scope of aviation emissions. However, it seems the initiative has been cut off at the knees. Thanks to a bit of industry lobbying, the commission has excluded long-haul flights from reporting requirements.
In response to the announcement, Safe Landing, a group of aviation workers passionate about flying and the planet, argued long-haul extra-EU flights, particularly over the North Atlantic, are significant contributors to the warming effects of contrails and therefore, key components of the ongoing research. They believe excluding flights in the North Atlantic Corridor will be a significant missed opportunity because contrail formation in this area is likely two times higher than the global average. They hoped to retain the full scope of the MRV initiative to reduce the uncertainties currently inhibiting implementation of contrail management practices. This idea highlights an opportunity for collaboration between Europe and North America which could drive the industry towards more sustainable flight operations.
Though a credible argument, Safe Landing’s proposal seems to have fallen on deaf ears. The EU Commission’s regulations for the directive have been published and the MRV protocol for aviation non-CO2 is on track for January 1, 2025, with the intra-EU flights being the focus of the initiative (page 6). All things considered, this will still be a tremendous resource for gleaning more definitive data on contrail lifecycles and filling information gaps on the best courses of action for mitigation. As such, we are eager to follow the reporting system and monitor its results.
Interesting Insights
Meanwhile, the RMI Contrail Impact Task Force has been working on an extensive report on all-things contrail management. They finally released said report in July, and it is indeed a thoroughly considered overview of the current scientific understanding of contrails, their climate impact, and the work going into their avoidance. The Task Force which penned this magnum opus is comprised of stakeholders across the aviation industry, collaborating to refine our knowledge of contrails and how best to address them. If you’re looking for a crash course on contrails, look no further, as this report covers everything.
Be warned, the work is quite lengthy. Comprised of over 100 pages, it is densely packed with information and insights. For those more interested in an auditory education, Andrew Chen, the principal for aviation decarbonization at RMI and a lead author, was recently a guest on the Aerospace Ambition podcast. There he discussed the details of the report and outlined some of the key points while highlighting the enormous effort it took to compose. Chen, echoing the closing remarks of the report, calls for more cooperation in the scientific community to improve observational capabilities and enhance communication to the public about the impacts of non-CO2.
This mission to raise public awareness is the journey we have embarked upon here at End the Lines. This has included interpreting reports such as the one mentioned above, as well as scientific papers, like the one published by IOP Science in August. This research, done by the Imperial College London and the German Aerospace Center (DLR), explores how differences in the operational efficiency of aircraft can contribute to longer contrail lifetimes. The study found that newer, more efficient aircraft are responsible for generating more satellite-detectable contrails. But why?
Though they are thought to emit less particulate matter (nvPM), the study found newer aircraft and private jets produced longer-lived contrails than the older ones because of their flight altitudes. While flying higher can be more fuel efficient, the research indicates higher flights also create more persistent contrails that are consistent with a positive warming impact on the climate. This implies a trade-off between the fuel-efficient aircraft and the environmental impact of persistent contrails.
The article also provides observational evidence to support data from model studies which claim contrail formation can be mitigated both by limiting particle emissions and with diversions in altitude. Looking forward, this evidence can be applied to future studies sharpening the science around contrail avoidance and strategies addressing the delicate balancing act between climate mitigation and operational challenges in aviation.
Word from Abroad
Finally, we wanted to share some of the key takeaways from our recent adventures abroad. We had the great pleasure of attending the Farnborough Airshow in July, an enormous exhibition covering all elements of aviation, from the supply of the smallest nuts and bolts, to the latest in aerospace technology, to the cutting-edge research in sustainability. For better context, the Airshow has released a report on the show in numbers to present the sheer scale of its influence on the aviation sector.
While there, we explored the profound complexities that make aircraft work, and the various operations that go into day-to-day flight. A stand-out experience was sitting in on the CTO panel which discussed aviation’s non-CO2 effects and the progress being made by each of the companies represented to address those effects. Here’s a quick highlight reel:
- Safran is working to increase the levels of certainty on the effects that non-CO2 has on the atmosphere;
- RTX is trying to get smarter on the causes and effects of contrails by partnering with universities to find out the physics of creation from both engine and fuel types;
- Rolls-Royce is exploring SAF and the impact that it has on contrail formation to give their engineers a bigger picture;
- GE Aerospace is involved in various flight trials to further the knowledge of contrails’ climate impact (proven by their acquisition of SATAVIA in August);
- Airbus is attempting to address the uncertainties around hydrogen propulsion with their Blue Condor project;
- Boeing is working on research through flight testing and optimization to reduce uncertainties.
The airshow was an educational event to say the least. Not only because of the panel and the informative stalls, but because we connected with representatives of a few hydrogen-powered flight companies. These conversations opened our eyes to their research into hydrogen aircraft and contrail creation, so watch this space.
What’s more, we attended the ICAO Symposium on non-CO2 in Montreal just this month. This was a first-of-its-kind conference, gathering practically everyone involved in the aviation non-CO2 conversation. With keynote speeches, panel discussions, and presentations, it was a non-stop schooling on the most recent happenings in non-CO2 research and the trajectory of future efforts. We enjoyed networking with an array of individuals, learning about how each one is playing his or her part in the conquest of aviation’s non-CO2 emissions, especially contrails.
A three-day affair, the summit thoroughly covered the history of non-CO2 emissions, the current scientific understanding, and the partnerships which will drive the research forward. It was an encouraging glimpse into the collaborative spirit shared among stakeholders across the industry. Three key words that we have taken away from the experience are:
- Partnership – the meaningful work that drives the quest for sustainable aviation will only be achieved through cooperation;
- Uncertainty – many uncertainties still exist in the realm of non-CO2 emissions, but that should be an incentive for more research, not less;
- Data – in order to clarify those extant uncertainties, more data is needed from tests, trials, and analyses.
We expect this symposium to stimulate action in the aviation community, and set the bar for the work that still needs to be done. Work that we will watch closely at END THE LINES. If you want to Take Action, check out our website and see how you can help.
Peace and gratitude,
Michael Caldwell
Executive Director
End the Lines