The Quest for Contrail Control Continues

More and more programs, projects, and initiatives are underway to gain a full understanding of the impact of contrails on our environment and the steps which can be taken to mitigate that impact. There’s so much going on that we can’t share all of it, so we have grabbed some of the recent headlines which excite us the most and highlighted the research driving the quest to control contrails.

New News

First up, we want to shed light on some of the progress being made in the United States with the help of projects like the FAA’s Ascent Emissions Project designed to research the emissions of nvPM and combustion gas from engines running both conventional fuel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). These measurements will aid in gleaning a better understanding of the prediction and formation of contrails as well as assist in validating the accuracy of the current prediction models CoCiP and APCEMM.  This thrilling work will help combat the uncertainties around SAF use and contrail formation and the ability to predict levels of ice crystals and humidity.

Also in the U.S., the formation of the Congressional Sustainable Aviation Caucus (CSAC) has recently been announced. This bipartisan alliance aims to reduce the environmental impact of the aviation industry through numerous initiatives such as the expansion of SAF production, improvement of aircraft efficiency, implementation of existing technology, and more. Although they do not explicitly mention contrails or contrail management, it is an important element of sustainable aviation and one that we’re sure the CSAC will address.

Elsewhere, work is being done in the UK to increase the understanding and awareness of contrails and the non-CO₂ effects of aviation. For example, Aerospace Technology Institute’s Non-CO₂ Program has developed a roadmap to highlight and prioritize the research actions needed to reduce aviation’s overall climate impact. The program’s target areas are fuel characteristics, aircraft technologies, and knowledge, data, and operations with the consideration that any changes need to take the cumulative impact of aviation into account.

The Results Are In

Various studies and test flights have furthered the knowledge on contrail management and the impact that SAF has both on overall emissions and contrail formation. A few of these trials have released their results, and we have been itching to share.

• SATAVIA’s Contrail Management Trial – SATAVIA has reported promising results from its 10-month trial of contrail management. In partnership with 12 airlines using their DECISIONX software, SATAVIA has claimed that over 2,200 tons of CO₂ equivalent (CO2E) has been prevented over the course of the 65-flight trail. This shows that aircraft operators can rely on DECISIONX for avoiding the formation of warming contrails, and it exemplifies the value of real-time trials to test and identify operational challenges to contrail management.

• ECLIF3 SAF Study – This Emission and Climate Impact of Alternative Fuels (ECLIF3) study compared SAF and Jet A-1 fuel to measure the emission of soot particles and the formation of contrail ice crystals. The results show a reduction of soot emissions and a 56% decrease of ice crystals when using 100% SAF, which bodes well for its continued proliferation throughout the aviation sector as a key tool in limiting the warming effects of flying.

• Virgin Atlantic’s Flight100 – Similar to the ECLIF3 study, Virgin’s Flight100 also tested the validity of flying on 100% SAF in their celebrated flight from London to New York. Their results are equally auspicious, as the flight saved 95 tons of CO₂ with a 40% reduction in particulates known to form contrails.

The results of these trials are encouraging, as the use of prediction software and SAF will both be integral for managing contrails. These are the kinds of trials required to alleviate the uncertainties and provoke action across the industry to begin the scaling of SAF production and the implementation of contrail-avoidance software in day-to-day flights. 

Meetings and Greetings

We have continued our outreach to connect with organizations that are leading the charge in contrail management. We recently met with a couple of start-ups that use data and analytics to improve the efficiency of flights while measuring and mitigating their contrail impact.

The first of our chats was with the cofounders of Nexus Lab, a flight-optimizing software company focused on reducing contrails. Omar Nuruzade and Gular Ismayilova were both very knowledgeable and willing to share some of the progress they’ve made since starting Nexus Lab in 2022. They are the winners of the 2022 ActInSpace award as well as the 2023 Creative Business Cup, showing their promise as an up-and-coming software company. They are currently working toward establishing partnerships with airlines both in Europe and the U.S. to implement their software and begin optimizing flight routes. 

We also had the pleasure of meeting with Maxime Meijers, the CEO of Estuaire. He told us a lot about Estuaire and their mission to monitor and reduce the climate impact of aviation. They use data to gain a full life-cycle estimate of a flight’s emissions, including NO_X and contrails, and create a plan to mitigate its impact. Their analytical software is top-of-the-line and will be a great tool for any airline looking for strategic flight planning. They work with Nordic Aviation Capital to analyze their flight data and optimize future flights; they are doing excellent work, and the journey has only just begun.

The very existence of these companies shows the progress being made in contrail management and the market that exists to make it a reality. We thoroughly enjoyed getting to know the individuals responsible for getting these businesses off the ground and will stay in touch with them to track the development of their efforts. Look out for future blog posts covering more of the details from our conversations with Nexus Lab and Estuaire.

This has been just a taste of some of the innovative work going into contrail research recently, with advancements being made throughout the aviation industry around the world. We will proceed to keep on the lookout for more people, organizations, and trials that are pushing to END THE LINES and combat the warming effect of contrails. We are inspired by these efforts and hope that you too will Take Action.

Peace and kindness,

Michael Caldwell

Executive Director

End the Lines